The Cultural Roots of Democratic Backsliding
Pippa Norris
Early-spring 2025, NY: Oxford University Press.
Synopsis
The risks of democratic backsliding and authoritarian resurgence have become a widespread cause for concern in America and around the globe. Yet no consensus has emerged about the severity and catalysts of this threat – still less how best to respond. Historical accounts blame strongman leaders and their acolytes. By contrast, institutional explanations fault flawed constitutional guardrails, party polarization, and media misinformation. Alternative sociological explanations emphasize the role of economic crisis, migration, and social inequality. But little agreement exists about the most important general drivers that fit diverse cases.
To take a fresh look at these issues, Part I of this book builds on and updates congruence theory. This classic thesis, popularized in the mid-twentieth century through the work of seminal scholars, predicts that democratic and authoritarian regimes are likely to endure where formal institutions reflect the norms and values of ordinary citizens in mass society.
In cases of progressive democratization, authoritarian regimes are expected to be more vulnerable to insurrection from below, and even breakdown, where ordinary citizens mobilize to demand democracy, freedom, and human rights. But state repression can deter popular protests and derail regime change.
Cases of democratic backsliding involve reverse cases where states have formal democratic constitutions, but informal governance norms have gradually eroded among elites and citizens, loosening constraints the abuse of executive powers by strongman leaders.
The book's theoretical framework outlines a two-step process of democratic backsliding. First, societal modernization triggers cultural shifts that threaten traditional social conservatives. Second, authoritarian populist parties and leaders exploit this resentment to gain power and dismantle formal institutional checks and balances.
This book’s contribution is threefold. It suggests a more powerful and comprehensive general theory than many rival accounts. The thesis is tested against a range of empirical evidence comparing both democratic and authoritarian states worldwide. Finally, the conclusion considers the broader policy implications for strengthening democratic governance.
Pippa Norris is the Paul McGuire Lecturer in Comparative Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, an award-winning author, and an elected member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the British Academy.
In Praise of Skepticism: Trust but Verify
Pippa Norris
New York: Oxford University Press. Sept 2022 $29.95 p/b
Winner of the 2023 Ronald F. Inglehart book award by the World Values Survey Association “for a book which makes a substantial and original contribution to theory and/or empirical studies in comparative cross-cultural research.:”
A culture of trust is usually claimed to have many public benefits, by lubricating markets, managing organizations, legitimating governments, and facilitating collective action. If so, any signs of eroding trust are, and should be, a matter of serious concern.
But the broader perspective developed in this book recognizes that trust has two faces, not one. Confidence in antivax theories has weakened herd immunity. Faith in Q-Anon conspiracy theories triggered violent insurrection. Disasters flow from gullible beliefs in fake Covid-19 cures, Madoff pyramid schemes, Russian claims to de-Nazify Ukraine, and the Big Lie denying President Biden’s legitimate election.
Trustworthiness involves an informal social contract by which principals authorize agents to act on their behalf in the expectation that they will fulfil their responsibilities with competency, integrity and impartiality, despite conditions of risk and uncertainty. Skeptical judgments reflect reasonably accurate and informed predictions about agents’ future actions based on their past performance and guardrails deterring dishonesty, mendacity, and corruption. We should trust but verify. Unfortunately, assessments are commonly flawed. Both cynical beliefs (underestimating performance) and credulous faith (over-estimating performance) involve erroneous judgements reflecting cultural biases, poor cognitive skills, and information echo chambers. These conclusions draw on new evidence from the European Values Survey/World Values Survey conducted among over 650,000 respondents in more than 100 societies over four decades.
In Praise of Skepticism warns that an excess of credulous trust poses serious and hitherto unrecognized risks in a world full of seductive demagogues playing on our insecurities, lying swindlers exploiting our greed, and silver-tongued conspiracy theorists manipulating our darkest fears.
Contents:
Preface and acknowledgements
List of tables
List of figures
I: Introduction
2. A general theory of skeptical trust
3. Evidence
II: What causes trust?
4. Comparing trust worldwide
5. Competency
6. Integrity and impartiality
III: Conclusions
7. In praise of skepticism
Bibliography
advance Reviews of ‘In Praise of Skepticism’
"Pippa Norris offers a beautifully written, argued, and documented account of what we need to strengthen democracy. She emphasizes the combination of trustworthiness and healthy skepticism derived from considered judgment and critical deliberation. And she details the preconditions: an open society, a lack of strong ideological convictions, and education. In outlining the possible, Norris makes a reinvigorated democracy more probable." -- Margaret Levi, Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
"This is a landmark study in the discussion of trust as a major concept in political research. Norris differentiates the general concept by introducing cynicism and credulity, allowing a focus on prudence skepticism. Norris shows that there is no evidence for a simple claim of a steady erosion of trust. Rather, skeptical and informed judgments mostly support her trust-as-performance thesis. This book is fun to read and it addresses a wide audience. Political science as a profession will be theoretically enriched. Decision makers and the general public interested in evidence will find many empirical treasures. It is a must-read for all." -- Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Professor Emeritus, WZB Berlin Social Science Center and Freie Universitaet Berlin
"For too long, the scholarly mainstream treated political trust as the quintessential source of democratic legitimacy. Yet, a revisionist view using terms like 'critical' and 'assertive' citizens has challenged the mainstream, arguing that the complacency element in political trust actually undermines democracy. Pippa Norris' In Praise of Skepticism provides to date the firmest conceptual foundation and empirical confirmation of the revisionist camp in political culture research." -- Christian Welzel, Political Culture Research Professor, Leuphana University of Lüneburg